About seven in ten promoted clubs survive their first season — and in 30 years not one has finished higher than fifth. What 46 promotions say about Kruger United and Milford in 2026/27.
Last updated: 2026-07-26.
Last updated: July 2026, ahead of the 2026/27 season opening on 1 August.
Roughly seven in ten promoted clubs survive their first season in the Betway Premiership — and in 30 years, not one has finished higher than fifth. Of the 46 teams promoted since the PSL was formed in 1996/97, 13 went straight back down, and only 10 have ever finished in the top eight.
That combination is the useful part. Promotion to the PSL is not the near-certain relegation people assume, but the ceiling on a promoted side's first season is remarkably hard. Both halves of that matter for how you read Kruger United and Milford this season.
| Measure | Count | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Clubs promoted since 1996/97 | 46 | — |
| Relegated straight back down | 13 | 28.3% |
| Survived their first season | 33 | 71.7% |
| Finished in the top eight | 10 | 21.7% |
| Finished higher than fifth | 0 | 0% |
The best first season ever recorded by a promoted PSL club is fifth place, achieved twice: Seven Stars in 1998/99 and Free State Stars in 2007/08. In 30 seasons no promoted club has bettered it.
So the realistic ambitions for a newly promoted side, stated as frequencies rather than hope: about a 72% chance of still being there next season, about a one-in-five chance of a top-eight finish, and no historical precedent at all for a genuine title or top-four challenge.
The published record for 2007/08 through 2019/20, with each promoted club's finishing position:
| Season | Promoted club and outcome |
|---|---|
| 2007/08 | Free State Stars — 5th (joint best ever) |
| 2008/09 | Bay United — 16th, relegated · Maritzburg United — 12th |
| 2009/10 | Jomo Cosmos — 16th, relegated · Mpumalanga Black Aces — 15th, survived play-offs |
| 2010/11 | Vasco da Gama — 15th, relegated via play-offs |
| 2011/12 | Black Leopards — 14th · Jomo Cosmos — 16th, relegated |
| 2012/13 | Chippa United — 15th, relegated via play-offs · University of Pretoria — 8th |
| 2013/14 | Mpumalanga Black Aces — 7th · Polokwane City — 15th, survived play-offs |
| 2014/15 | Chippa United — 14th |
| 2015/16 | Jomo Cosmos — 16th, relegated · Lamontville Golden Arrows — 9th |
| 2016/17 | Baroka FC — 15th, survived play-offs · Highlands Park — 16th |
| 2017/18 | Thanda Royal Zulu — sold status to AmaZulu, never competed |
| 2018/19 | Black Leopards — 13th · Highlands Park — 7th |
| 2019/20 | Stellenbosch FC — 10th |
This is the portion of the 46-promotion record that is published in a dated, itemised form. We have not reconstructed the full list back to 1996/97 — the aggregate counts above come from the same source, and we would rather show the subset we can cite line by line than pad it out.
Two patterns in that table. The play-off route saves a lot of clubs — Mpumalanga Black Aces, Polokwane City and Baroka all finished 15th and stayed up. And the failures repeat: Jomo Cosmos were promoted three times between 2010 and 2015 and finished bottom every time. AmaZulu have come up and gone straight back down on two occasions.
South African football has a feature that has no equivalent in most leagues, and it makes promotion data messier than it looks.
Clubs buy and sell their top-flight status. Thanda Royal Zulu won promotion in 2017/18 and immediately sold their status to AmaZulu, never playing a Premiership match. Mpumalanga Black Aces finished fourth in 2015/16 and sold their status to Cape Town City. Most recently, SuperSport United — a club with 29 seasons in the division — was dissolved, its status sold to Siwelele FC and confirmed by SuperSport International in July 2025.
This matters for reading the record in three ways. A promoted club that "disappeared" may have been sold rather than relegated. A club appearing as newly promoted may in fact be an established squad under a new name. And the survival rate above slightly understates on-field failure, because at least one of the 46 promotions never produced a season of football at all.
It is also why the churn is so severe: of the 18 clubs in the inaugural 1996/97 Premiership season, only four still exist as professional clubs — Mamelodi Sundowns, Kaizer Chiefs, Orlando Pirates and AmaZulu.
Three clubs are relevant this season.
Kruger United come up as NFD champions, confirmed 2 May 2026. Milford come up through the play-offs, confirmed 13 Jun 2026. Both are new to the division, and both are entering it at a point when the league is at its most defensive — the Betway Premiership now produces around two goals a game, the lowest in its history, as our PSL goals analysis sets out.
Durban City, promoted for 2025/26, are in the 2026/27 division — they are past the first-season hurdle that removes 28% of promoted clubs.
The base rates say: expect Kruger United and Milford to be in a relegation fight, expect roughly one of the two to still be here next season on historical frequencies, and do not expect either to challenge the top four. That is not pessimism about either club, it is what 46 promotions have produced.
Two structural factors compound the difficulty for these two specifically. Promoted clubs carry the thinnest squads in the division into a fixture list that treats them like everyone else. And both face the travel burden that our own analysis found costs visiting teams around 0.30 points per game when they cross South Africa's altitude divide — a cost that falls hardest on squads without depth. Kruger United, based in Mpumalanga, inherit the Mpumalanga derby with TS Galaxy.
A base rate is not a forecast. These figures describe a population of 46 clubs across 30 years; they do not predict any particular club's season, and a promoted side with unusual backing can beat them comfortably.
The full 46-promotion list. The aggregate counts (46 promoted, 13 relegated immediately, 10 top-eight finishes, best finish fifth) come from a single published compilation. We reproduce the itemised seasons that compilation sets out and have not independently rebuilt the full list from primary season records. If we do, we will publish the reconstruction and its method.
Points-for-safety thresholds. Several circulating articles claim specific survival thresholds — that no club has survived on fewer than 24 points, or that 31 points has always been enough to stay up. We could not trace either claim to a verifiable source and have left both out rather than repeat them.
Recent promoted-club outcomes. The itemised record we can cite ends at 2019/20. The 2026/27 division roster we maintain reflects the clubs actually in the league, but we have not verified season-by-season finishing positions for every promoted side since 2020/21.
How many promoted teams get relegated from the PSL immediately? 13 of the 46 clubs promoted since 1996/97 went straight back down — about 28%, or a little over one in four. The other 72% survived their first season.
What is the best finish by a promoted team in the PSL? Fifth place, achieved by Seven Stars in 1998/99 and Free State Stars in 2007/08. No promoted club has ever finished higher in 30 seasons of the competition.
How often do promoted PSL clubs finish in the top eight? 10 times out of 46 promotions, about 22% — roughly one in five.
Which club has the worst promoted record in the PSL? Jomo Cosmos, who were promoted three times between 2010 and 2015 and finished bottom of the league on each occasion. AmaZulu have also been promoted and relegated immediately on two occasions.
Who was promoted to the Betway Premiership for 2026/27? Kruger United, as NFD champions confirmed on 2 May 2026, and Milford, through the promotion play-offs confirmed on 13 June 2026.
Can a South African club buy its way into the PSL? Effectively yes — clubs can sell their top-flight status to another club. Thanda Royal Zulu sold theirs to AmaZulu on promotion in 2017/18 without playing a match, and SuperSport United's status was sold to Siwelele FC in 2025.
This page is descriptive analysis of historical records, published for information. It is not a prediction of any club's season. Reference data, free to cite with attribution — please credit and link to this page. Corrections and additional primary sources are welcome via our contact page.
More reference data: our PSL goals analysis, the FIFA Club Benefits breakdown, or PSL statistics by season.